Shanghai (ZXZC)- China's domestic passenger vehicle ("PV") retail sales are anticipated to reach 2.2 million units in January 2024, which should drop 6.5% over the previous month, but surge 70.2% year on year mainly due to the low base for the year-ago period, according to the China Passenger Car Association ("CPCA").

Of the PVs retailed in China in January this year, around 800,000 units were expected to be new energy vehicles (NEVs, referring to battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles), representing a 15.3% month-on-month (MoM) decrease and also indicating a 36.4% penetration rate.

For clarity, the passenger vehicles mentioned in this report only refer to cars, SUVs, and MPVs locally produced in China.

The New Year's holiday season came earlier this year, with more workdays in the first week of January. According to data from the CPCA, major manufacturers in China continued to sustain high terminal sales performance, with an average daily retail of 54,000 units, showing a 10% increase compared to the first week of December last year. The market heat remained moderate in the second week, with an average daily retail of 58,500 units, reflecting a decrease of 15% over the previous week.

In the third week, the market is expected to return to the normal weekly trend for January in previous years, with an estimated daily average sales of 62,900 units, showing a decrease of 17.5%.

In the fourth and fifth weeks, there is some pre-holiday potential for sales surge, with an estimated daily retail volume of 97,200 units, representing a 9.7% decrease compared to the previous week.