CITIC Securities expects China to add more than 10,000 battery swap stations a year by 2025, bringing the total to more than 30,000.

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CATL's announcement of its new brand EVOGO is seen as an important endorsement of the battery swap model. Although the power battery giant has not released details of its business plan, Nio's model may be the most viable option in the eyes of analysts.

Nio's battery as a service (BaaS) model may be the mainstream option for players in the battery swap space, said top Chinese brokerage CITIC Securities in a research note released yesterday, adding that the business certainty of providing such services for operational vehicles is the strongest.

After more than a decade of exploration, battery swap has gradually formed a more mature business model under the joint efforts of vehicle makers, battery swap station operators, equipment vendors and battery makers, the team said.

One of the battery swap models that players in this field may choose in the future is Nio's BaaS model, according to the team.

Mirattery, a battery asset management company set up by Nio together with CATL, Guotai Junan and Hubei Science Technology Investment, has become a bridge linking carmakers, battery makers and consumers, with the responsibility for recycling used batteries changing from carmakers to battery asset management companies, the team noted.

The team did not elaborate on this, but said that for battery swap stations serving passenger cars, a utilization rate of about 20 percent, or 60 services per day, is the break-even point.

As utilization increases, the profitability of the stations increases significantly. At 100 vehicles per day, the net margin per station is about 18 percent, the team said.

The team expects 2022 to be the first year of substantial and rapid growth for the battery swap model, with more than 3,000 new battery swap stations expected to be added in China this year, bringing the total to more than 4,500.

By comparison, as of October 2021, there were only 1,086 battery swap stations in China.

CITIC Securities estimates that China will add more than 10,000 battery swap stations a year by 2025, bringing the total to more than 30,000.

At its Nio Day 2021 event on December 18, 2021, Nio said it plans to have more than 1,300 battery swap stations, more than 6,000 superchargers, and more than 10,000 destination charging stations by the end of 2022. The company exits 2021 with 777 battery swap stations.

Nio said at the inaugural Nio Power Day event on July 9, 2021, that it will have more than 4,000 battery swap stations worldwide by the end of 2025, with 1,000 in overseas markets.

From 2022 to 2025, Nio will add 600 battery swap stations per year in the Chinese market, it said.