On April 2, Tesla announced production and delivery data for the first quarter of this year: production of 102,700 units and delivery of 88,400 units, a 40% increase from 63,000 units in the same period of the previous year and 70,000 units higher than analysts generally expected s level.

Affected by this news, the company's stock price was $ 535 per share in the after-hours trading of the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, up 17.72%.

The record production capacity in the first quarter was mainly due to the Tesla Shanghai Super Factory, which was officially put into operation at the end of 2019.

Tesla currently has two vehicle assembly plants in Fremont, USA, and Shanghai, China. The Fremont plant has the largest output, with a daily output of more than 1,000 units. This figure is comparable to the output of the Shanghai plant during the initial week.

Tesla did not disclose the production and delivery status of the two factories in the first quarter. According to incomplete statistics from reporters, Tesla delivered approximately 7,500 vehicles in China in the first two months of 2020.

But the problem is that with the largest Fremont plant officially closed on March 24, the time for resumption of work is unknown, and Tesla's second-quarter and full-year delivery figures will be affected.

Wall Street analysts have lowered Tesla's full-year delivery expectations. For example, Citibank analyst Itay Michaeli expects Tesla to deliver about 434,000 electric vehicles this year, lower than the previously expected 517,000 vehicles, and lowered the target price of Tesla stock from $ 312 to $ 312. USD 246.

CEO Elon Musk has set a target for the delivery of 500,000 vehicles in 2020, limited by the spread of the epidemic around the world, it is doubtful whether Tesla can achieve this goal.

Record in the first quarter, unsustainable in the second quarter

On April 3, Tesla released the first-quarter production and delivery figures: 122,000 Model S / X and 76,200 Model 3 / Y were delivered. The former delivered the same amount as the same period last year, and the latter increased by 49.7%. The main driver of the increase in the delivery of Sila.

Unlike other mainstream auto companies that release monthly production and sales bulletins, Tesla discloses production and delivery on a quarterly basis, generally within 1 to 4 days after the end of the quarter. The revenue and profit will be announced in the subsequent quarterly report. Tesla is expected to release its first-quarter earnings later this month or early May.

Tesla believes that this delivery number is still relatively conservative, because "only when the car is delivered to the customer and a series of document contracts are signed will it be considered to have been delivered, and the actual number of deliveries may be 0.5% higher than this number. even more."

The first quarter is the traditional off-season of auto companies. Even if Tesla's production of 102,700 vehicles in the first quarter of this year set a record, it was still 2% lower than the production of 104,900 vehicles in the fourth quarter of last year.

The Chinese factory contributed greatly to the delivery in the first quarter, with approximately 7,500 vehicles delivered in China in the first two months of 2020. In January, Tesla registered 3563 new cars in China; in February, data from the "Monthly Database of Power Batteries" showed that Tesla 's Shanghai plant produced 3,898 vehicles in February, accounting for 11,900 new energy vehicle production in China. More than 30% has become the top of China's new energy vehicle output. There are no March data to refer to yet.

Song Gang, the manufacturing director of Tesla's Shanghai plant, said at the delivery ceremony of the domestic Model 3 on December 30, 2019 that the current output of the Shanghai plant can reach 28 units per hour, 10 hours of daily start-up time, and the weekly output exceeds 1,000 units. It is expected to reach 3000 units / week in the future. "Now the factory is working overtime almost every day to meet the strong demand for orders."

However, with the Fremont plant officially closed on March 24, Tesla's second quarter and full year delivery figures will be affected. The Fremont plant is Tesla's largest plant, with a daily capacity of over 1,000 vehicles.

According to travel statistics, at least three Tesla employees have been diagnosed with the new coronavirus, including two California office employees and one Nevada factory employee.

For consumers, the factory shutdown means that the delivery time is delayed. Information from Tesla's US official website shows that there are many models currently on sale and the delivery time is expected to be 8-12 weeks later.

Tesla's shutdown is reluctant. On March 19, after several rounds of negotiations with the county, state, and federal governments, Tesla announced that it would suspend work on March 24—a few days later than its competitors in Detroit. Even if the work is stopped, Tesla sees it as an opportunity to "knife sharpen without cutting firewood". It will transform the production line to increase the output of Model Y.

After all, CEO Musk demanded that this year's delivery volume increase by more than 36% over last year, and complete the delivery target of 500,000 vehicles throughout the year. The production line is stopped for a day, and it is far from the small target.

In view of the impact of the epidemic, many analysts have lowered Tesla's 2020 delivery expectations. Itai Mikkeli expects that production will gradually resume in the third quarter and fully resume in the fourth quarter. Corresponding to the financial level and the production level, the first quarter and second quarter financial reports will lose, in the third quarter it will return to a level slightly higher than the breakeven, and in the fourth quarter it will return to profit.

Tesla is working to overcome the financial impact of the shutdown. A few weeks ago, the company raised US $ 2.31 billion in capital through the issuance of new shares, providing buffer funds for possible operating losses. Tesla said it can also get about $ 3 billion in operating capital, plus financing available for its Shanghai plant. As of the end of December last year, it had $ 6.3 billion in cash on hand.

Tesla began to consider the conversion of much-needed medical equipment such as ventilators in car factories. On March 22, Musk tweeted that he had a long discussion with the medical device company Medtronic about the production of ventilators. However, there has been no substantial progress.

The Chinese factory has only tremendous fruits, "chip downgrade door" hurts the brand

After the closure of the US plant, only the Shanghai Super Plant is the only vehicle assembly plant that Tesla is operating. The plant currently produces Model 3 models. After the completion of the Shanghai Lingang Tesla Super Factory Project (Phase I), an annual output of 150,000 pure electric vehicles will be produced. The production models include Model 3 and Model Y. The second phase is under construction.

According to Tesla 's official website in China, the Model 3 standard battery life upgrade version is now booked and is expected to be delivered in the second quarter of this year, while the dual-motor all-wheel drive long battery life version and Performance high-performance version are expected to be delivered in the third quarter of this year.

The Tesla Shanghai Super Factory officially resumed production on February 10, and it is the earliest batch in the automobile factory. However, supply chain management could not keep up with the speed of resumption of production, resulting in a "chip downgrade door" scandal. Tesla not only received complaints from consumers, but also attracted interviews from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

At the end of February, a domestic Tesla owner found that the configuration of the Chinese version of the Model 3 vehicle it purchased was inconsistent with the on-board environmental protection list. The list indicated the HW3.0 chip, but the actual HW2.5 chip was actually used. .

On March 3, Tesla publicly apologized, saying that chip downgrade is a last resort due to supply chain conditions, and is willing to provide free replacements for HW3.0 chips to car owners. On March 10, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice saying that it had interviewed Tesla and asked it to make rectifications in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Administrative Measures for the Access to Motor Vehicle Manufacturing Enterprises and Products" to ensure production consistency and product quality. Safety.

It is true that the new crown epidemic is a challenge unprecedented for all auto companies. The middle level of the purchasing department of a OEM told a traveler that the previous supply chain management problems were regional. For example, due to weather conditions, it was impossible to produce or the logistics was shut down. It is enough for the company to check, identify, and pay attention to risks for a week. , But "have never encountered such a complex problem as this epidemic, risk management from the end of January to now, from the country to the world."

"Chip downgrade" did affect the confidence of some consumers. "I don't think Tesla understands the Chinese market," Tesla's Beijing car advocate said to a traveler, "The Chinese have been spoiled by traditional 4S stores. Everyone used to think that Tesla was a high-tech toy. Tolerate it, the current price of 300,000 has already touched many ordinary car owners who do not know Tesla. If Tesla has been like this, there will definitely be catastrophic problems in the future. "

Tesla, who sees the Chinese market as an important growth pole, knows to change. On April 2nd, Tesla established the China Che You Club, "to gather more peers who recognize the Tesla concept, and jointly practice and advocate the Tesla concept."

Official information shows that the head of the certification club enjoys exclusive communication channels, and can regularly conduct online and offline official exchanges with Tesla China and the world, as well as enjoy factory visits and new product launches.

"Today's Tesla is a General Motors two decades ago, and there is a lot of room for improvement in the localization rate." Alexious Lee, head of China strategy research at investment bank Jefferies, told a travel guest that any foreign brand that wants to be in the Chinese market With rapid development, it is necessary to increase the localization rate of the industrial chain and local service capabilities, including the timeliness of services and the timeliness of accessories. "

Song Gang, manufacturing director of Tesla's Shanghai plant, said that the current localization rate of parts in the Shanghai plant is about 30%, and plans to increase it to 70% -80% by July 2020.

Source